It was known as a harmless chain letter in school and is regarded as a Ponzi scheme in white-collar crime: a fraudulent capitalization method that can only exist as long as new investors are willing to contribute money. The continuous growth is impossible to uphold and sooner or later Ponzi schemes do collapse. The world economy can be viewed as one gigantic Ponzi scheme, according to economic analyst Martin Armstrong, since the foundation of the global market is based on debt. Countries and economic systems contract debts which stimulate their economy and proceed to accumulate new debts to clear old ones. This can continue for as long as there is new money… but what happens when that money gone?
What could potentially happen when this system breaks down is a thrilling question, yet it only makes up one aspect of THE FORECASTER, a film directed by Marcus Vetter and Karin Steinberger which presents itself as a documentary but is chiefly polemical. That may be because of the enormous complexity of the topic that encompasses economic theories, market manipulations, and conspiracy theories and is difficult to grasp for even a qualified layperson – and definitely not at a running time of 92 minutes. It remains unclear why Armstrong was imprisoned for years because of Vetter and Steinberg’s choice to only let Armstrong, his friends, and his business partners speak. A critical perspective is entirely missing because the judges and lawyers surely refused to be part of the film but first and foremost it has to do with the unwillingness of the directors to question their hero. He is undoubtedly a fascinating individual with an uncanny ability to predict the market. However, a more discerning viewpoint would have done the film some good.

Michael Meyns

Translation: Elinor Lewy